OSHAWA REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT · As of September 22, 2026What 717 Active Listings Tell Buyers, Sellers & Investors in Oshawa Right NowLive. Work. Invest. Belong. Local market insight,
February 2026 Durham Region Real Estate Market Report
Dated: March 17 2026
Views: 872
Market Intelligence Report
February 2026
Durham Region
Real Estate Market Report
What's really happening across Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa & Clarington — data-driven analysis for first-time buyers, sellers, and investors navigating Southern Ontario's most affordable GTA market.
📅 Published March 17, 2026 · Data: TRREB February 2026
01 — Executive Summary
What's Really Happening in Durham Region Right Now
Southern Ontario — and especially Durham Region — remained one of the most affordable entry points into the GTA housing ladder in February 2026, with Oshawa standing out as a value hotspot for first-time buyers compared with Toronto, Peel, York, Markham, and Scarborough.
❓ Is Southern Ontario iS a buyer's market in February 2026?
GTA-wide, conditions are balanced but tilting in favour of well-prepared buyers. Sales are down year-over-year, new listings have declined, and average prices have corrected from peak levels. In Durham Region, sale-to-list ratios average 99–101% depending on property type — the advantage goes to buyers who understand local micro-markets and act decisively.
❓ Are home prices rising or falling in Durham Region?
Durham's overall average price in February 2026 was $845,868 — up +2.3% month-over-month but down −6.6% year-over-year. This is a classic sign of a market that has corrected year-over-year but is stabilizing on a monthly basis. Across the GTA, TRREB's February 2026 Market Watch shows an average of $1,008,968, down 7.1% year-over-year — underscoring that Durham's pricing sits meaningfully below the GTA average.
❓ Why does this matter for first-time buyers?
For first-time buyers comparing Toronto, Peel (Brampton/Mississauga), York (Markham), Scarborough, and Durham, the gap between the GTA average (around $1.0M) and Durham's average (mid‑$800s) is a key affordability cushion. Within Durham, condo apartments averaged $518,984, condo townhouses $595,686, and semis $685,870 — numbers extremely difficult to find in central Toronto, Markham, or core Mississauga.
February 2026 · Durham Region Market Snapshot · Source: TRREB Market Watch · Harvinder Gill, Royal Canadian Realty (437) 444-4442
02 — Regional Breakdown
GTA vs Durham Region: February 2026 By the Numbers
GTA Overview
TRREB's February 2026 Market Watch confirms the broader GTA context for Durham buyers and sellers:
| GTA Metric | February 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total GTA Sales | 3,868 | −6.3% |
| New Listings | 10,705 | −17.7% |
| Active Listings (month-end) | 19,314 | Elevated vs pandemic |
| Average Selling Price | $1,008,968 | −7.1% |
| HPI Benchmark | — | −7.9% |
Ontario's own market commentary frames this as "more choice, greater affordability for buyers" compared with 2021–2022, with monthly mortgage payments trending lower due to a combination of lower prices and easing borrowing costs. (Source: TRREB Market Watch, February 2026)
Durham Region — All Property Types, February 2026
| KPI | Feb 2026 Value | MoM vs Jan 2026 | YoY vs Feb 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | $845,868 | +2.3% | −6.6% |
| Median Price | $795,000 | +2.6% | −5.9% |
| Transactions (Sales) | 477 | +12.0% | −19.3% |
| Average List Price | $920,181 | −3.0% | −7.5% |
| New Listings | 1,178 | +2.3% | −14.6% |
| Sales Above List Price | 29.1% | Up sharply vs Jan | Down vs last year |
| Avg Sale-to-List (SPLP) | 99.9% | +2.0 pts | −1.9 pts |
| Avg Days on Market | 28 days | −31.5% | +23.5% |
For buyers, February 2026 means more sales than January, slightly more new listings, meaningful year-over-year price relief, and enough inventory that you are not forced into instant bidding wars on every listing.
— TRREB Durham Region Market Watch, February 202603 — Affordability Lens
Durham vs Toronto, Peel & York: The Affordability Gap
TRREB's GTA-wide average of roughly $1.0M in February 2026 is heavily influenced by high-priced cores such as Toronto, York Region (Markham/Vaughan), and key nodes in Peel like central Mississauga. Durham's structural affordability advantage is significant and measurable:
Durham Region
$845,868All property types avg.
✓ Best GTA Value
City of Toronto
$1.0M+Detached avg $1.3–1.5M+
Peel (Brampton / Mississauga)
$950K+Core Mississauga higher
York (Markham / Vaughan)
$1.1M+Among GTA's highest
Durham's average of $845,868 sits about $160,000 below the GTA-wide average. Detached homes in Durham averaged $952,240 versus much higher typical detached prices in Toronto proper, Markham, Vaughan, and many Mississauga neighbourhoods, where detached averages often land comfortably above $1.3–$1.5M based on historic TRREB regional splits.
Durham condo apartments and condo townhomes, at roughly $519K and $596K respectively, are significantly more accessible than comparable product in downtown Toronto, North York, or central Mississauga, where one-bedroom and smaller two-bedroom units frequently trade above those levels.
For first-time buyers weighing "Toronto vs Oshawa" or "Mississauga vs Courtice/Bowmanville," this is the structural affordability advantage that keeps Durham at the centre of entry-level buyer conversations in 2026.
04 — Oshawa Spotlight
Oshawa: The GTA's First-Time Buyer Hotspot in 2026
🏡 Why Oshawa Leads for First-Time Buyers
Durham's average of $845,868 already includes higher-priced nodes like Pickering and some Whitby pockets. Oshawa's freehold averages typically sit below that regional figure — often closer to higher-end townhouse pricing in Peel or Scarborough.
For the price of a condo or stacked townhouse in Mississauga City Centre or Markham's Highway 7 corridor, first-time buyers can often secure a full freehold property in Oshawa with a yard, parking, and long-term family flexibility.
That value gap is exactly what AI search engines and first-time buyer tools are surfacing when they answer queries like "Is Oshawa a good place for first-time home buyers in 2026?" and "February 2026 Durham housing market update."
- Most affordable freehold in GTA
- Strong rental yield potential
- Growing infrastructure & transit
- Ontario Tech University proximity
- Strong community & school options
- Entry detached under $900K possible
Durham City-by-City Snapshot
| City | Market Character | Best For | Demand Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏙 Pickering | GTA spillover, faster stabilization | Commuters, families | Highway 401 access, GO Train |
| 🏘 Ajax | Strong GTA demand, balanced | Families, professionals | Schools, community amenities |
| 🏡 Whitby | Balanced, family-oriented | School-driven buyers | Top-ranked schools, lifestyle |
| ⭐ Oshawa | Most affordable, high investor activity | First-time buyers, investors | Price value, rental demand |
| 🌱 Clarington | Emerging growth corridor | Value-focused, growing families | New developments, infrastructure |
05 — Housing Type Performance
Durham Property Types: February 2026 Full Breakdown
Condo Apartment
$518,984▲ +13.2% MoM
▼ −5.8% YoY
✓ ENTRY POINT
Condo Townhouse
$595,686▲ +6.0% MoM
▼ −7.3% YoY
Semi-Detached
$685,870▼ −1.3% MoM
▼ −14.5% YoY
Underrated Opp.
Freehold Townhouse
$740,534▲ +4.3% MoM
▼ −9.5% YoY
Move-Up Sweet Spot
Detached
$952,240▲ +1.2% MoM
▼ −7.2% YoY
| Property Type | Avg Price | MoM | YoY | Sales | New Listings | Avg SPLP | Avg DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $952,240 | +1.2% | −7.2% | 291 | 690 | 99.9% | 26 days |
| Semi-Detached | $685,870 | −1.3% | −14.5% | 27 | 59 | 101.4% | 20 days |
| Freehold Townhouse | $740,534 | +4.3% | −9.5% | 68 | — | — | — |
| Condo Townhouse | $595,686 | +6.0% | −7.3% | 35 | 90 | 101.7% | 38 days |
| Condo Apartment | $518,984 | +13.2% | −5.8% | 31 | 117 | 98.3% | 28 days |
| All Property Types | $845,868 | +2.3% | −6.6% | 477 | 1,178 | 99.9% | 28 days |
Key Takeaways for First-Time Buyers
- Condo apartments are the absolute entry point at ~$519K, with prices down 5.8% year-over-year and a 13.2% MoM rebound — suggesting renewed buyer interest at these levels.
- Condo townhouses and semis cluster in the high-$500s to mid-$600s, offering backyard and multi-level living at price points where many Toronto buyers are still limited to condos.
- Detached homes in Durham at $952,240 are below the GTA average across all property types — a detached in Oshawa or Clarington often costs less than a mid-range townhouse in Brampton, Mississauga, Markham, or Scarborough.
- Semi-detached homes down −14.5% YoY represent the most underrated entry-level freehold opportunity in the current market.
06 — Influencing Factors
What's Driving the Durham Market: Rates, Immigration & Global Events
Interest Rates & Affordability
The 2025–2026 correction was driven largely by higher borrowing costs, followed by gradual easing now reducing monthly mortgage payments for average-priced homes. TRREB confirmed that monthly mortgage payments for an average-priced GTA home continued trending lower by late 2025, benefitting from both lower borrowing costs and lower selling prices — dynamics that carried into early 2026, underpinning Durham's modest month-over-month price uptick in February. (Source: TRREB Market Watch)
Immigration & Population Growth
Ontario and GTA housing analyses consistently highlight population growth and immigration as structural drivers of long-term housing demand, even when short-term sentiment is cautious. Durham's relative affordability positions it as a key "pressure valve" for this demand, particularly in first-time buyer price bands. New Canadians and newcomers are actively targeting Durham Region for its space-to-dollar ratio versus Toronto or Peel.
Geopolitical Factors: Iran–Israel–US
The early 2026 conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran injected additional uncertainty into global energy markets and interest rate paths. Oil price spikes pushed bond yields and North American mortgage rates higher in the short term, reversing some of the late-2025 rate improvements. If the conflict remains limited, these effects may be temporary; if prolonged, higher energy costs and inflation risks could keep rates elevated longer. (Sources: realestatenews.com, lendworth.ca, Newsweek)
Government Policy & Buyer Support
TRREB and Ontario commentary continue to call for modernizing tax rules, cutting buyer costs, and ending exclusionary zoning to allow more missing-middle housing — particularly in transit-oriented and suburban nodes like Durham. For first-time buyers, any easing of land-transfer costs or broadening of first-time buyer assistance magnifies the relative purchasing power already available in Durham compared with higher-priced cores. (Source: TRREB, OntarioMLP.ca)
For Durham first-time buyers navigating this environment: approval amounts may fluctuate with rate moves, but the comparative value advantage of Oshawa, Clarington, and other Durham cities versus Toronto/Peel/York actually becomes more important when rates are volatile — because every dollar of purchasing power stretches further here.
07 — Market Sentiment
Buyer & Seller Psychology in Early 2026
Market Conditions Indicator — February 2026
Buyer's Market Balanced Seller's Market
66.7% Sold Below Asking
29.1% Sold Above Asking
4.2% Sold at List Price
Across the GTA, analysts note that tens of thousands of potential buyers remain on the sidelines, waiting for stronger signals that both prices and mortgage rates have fully stabilized. In Durham's February 2026 data, you can see this psychology at work:
- Sales up +12% month-over-month but still down 19.3% year-over-year — some buyers are returning, but many remain cautious.
- A large majority of deals (66.7%) still closing below list price, yet almost 30% closing above asking — showing a split between aggressively priced competitive listings and those that overshoot.
- Days on market trending down sharply from January (from 40 to 28 days on average) — motivated buyers are acting quickly when homes are priced right.
For first-time buyers, this "split" market can be frustrating: you see price reductions and stale listings on one side, and still face multiple offers on the best-located, best-presented homes under about $900K. Having expert guidance to distinguish the two is essential.
08 — Forward Outlook
Spring 2026 & Beyond: What to Expect in Durham Region
CREA and GTA analysts expect stronger activity in the second half of 2026 as rates stabilize and buyer confidence improves, with national transactions projected to rise and average prices expected to edge higher after a multi-year correction.
Spring 2026 — Now
The combination of modest month-over-month price gains in February, lower year-over-year averages, and falling days on market suggests the bottoming process is already underway in many entry-level segments. This is the smartest window before spring competition intensifies and buyer inventory tightens further.
Q2 2026 — April–June
Spring market typically brings increased listing activity and buyer competition. Well-priced homes in Oshawa, Whitby, and Ajax are expected to see renewed bidding activity — especially in the $600K–$900K freehold range where first-time buyer demand concentrates.
Q3 2026 — July–September
If borrowing costs settle or improve into Q3, first-time buyer demand is likely to concentrate in markets where detached and attached homes remain under the GTA average. Durham — and especially Oshawa and Clarington — are prime candidates for above-average price recovery as buyers who sat on the sidelines in 2024–2025 finally commit.
Risk Scenario
A prolonged geopolitical shock that keeps rates elevated could restrain price growth while preserving the structural affordability gap between Durham and higher-priced regions — actually extending the current "window" for value-focused first-time buyers to enter at relative lows.
✅ Is it a good time to buy in Durham Region in Spring 2026?
For first-time buyers with stable income and a long-term horizon, the data supports acting in 2026 rather than waiting for a market "crash" — prices have already corrected 6–15% year-over-year depending on type, competition is manageable but picking up, and spring will bring more competition. For sellers, especially move-up sellers in Durham, Spring 2026 offers a rare alignment: you sell into a stabilizing market where well-priced homes still achieve near-100% of list, while buying your next property in a GTA where major cores remain more expensive but growth is muted.
09 — Frequently Asked Questions
Durham Region Real Estate: Answers to Your Top Questions
Yes — Durham Region is in a balanced-to-buyer's market in February 2026. With 66.7% of homes selling below asking price, a sale-to-list ratio of 99.9%, and average prices down 6.6% year-over-year at $845,868, well-prepared buyers have meaningful negotiating power — particularly on homes priced above the median or sitting beyond 28 days on market.
The average home price across all property types in Durham Region in February 2026 was $845,868 — up 2.3% month-over-month but down 6.6% year-over-year. By type: Detached $952,240 | Freehold Townhouse $740,534 | Semi-Detached $685,870 | Condo Townhouse $595,686 | Condo Apartment $518,984. (Source: TRREB Market Watch February 2026)
Yes. Oshawa consistently ranks as one of the most affordable freehold markets in the entire GTA. For the price of a condo or stacked townhouse in Mississauga City Centre or Markham's Highway 7 corridor, first-time buyers can often secure a full freehold property in Oshawa with a yard, parking, and long-term family flexibility. Strong rental demand, Ontario Tech University proximity, and new transit infrastructure make Oshawa an exceptional value proposition in 2026.
Durham's February 2026 average of $845,868 sits roughly $160,000 below the GTA-wide average of $1,008,968. Detached homes in Durham averaged $952,240 versus $1.3–$1.5M+ in Toronto, Markham, and core Mississauga. Durham condo apartments at ~$519K and condo townhomes at ~$596K are significantly more accessible than comparable product in downtown Toronto, North York, or central Mississauga.
Unlikely based on February 2026 data. Prices are already stabilizing month-over-month (+2.3% across all types) even as they remain below year-ago levels. Days on market fell sharply to 28 days from 40 in January, indicating buyers are acting on well-priced homes. CREA and GTA analysts expect stronger activity in H2 2026 as rates stabilize — suggesting the bottoming process is already underway in many entry-level Durham segments.
For first-time buyers with stable income and a long-term horizon, the data supports acting in Spring 2026. Prices have already corrected 6–15% year-over-year depending on property type, competition is manageable but increasing, and spring will bring more bidding competition — especially for well-priced freehold homes under $900K in Oshawa, Clarington, and Whitby.
Condo apartments ($518,984 avg) are the absolute entry point, with prices down 5.8% YoY and strong MoM recovery. Condo townhouses ($595,686) and semi-detached ($685,870, down 14.5% YoY) offer excellent value with freehold-like living. For buyers who can stretch to ~$740K, freehold townhouses are seeing renewed demand with a 4.3% MoM price recovery — the sweet spot for move-up buyers targeting long-term equity growth.
10 — Local Expertise
Why Work with Harvinder Gill in This Market
In a data-heavy, balanced market like February–Spring 2026, first-time buyers in Durham and Oshawa need more than listings — they need real-time interpretation of numbers, neighbourhood nuance, and a negotiation plan that reflects current buyer and seller psychology.
Harvinder Gill, Realtor® with Royal Canadian Realty, Brokerage, delivers exactly that — with deep roots in Southern Ontario and Durham Region.
- Real-Time Market Insights — Works directly from TRREB board-level Market Watch data and segmented Durham property-type reports, translating metrics like SPLP and DOM into specific budget and offer strategies.
- Proven Negotiation Strategy — With ~29–37% of Durham homes selling above list and the rest at or below asking, offer strategy matters. Harvinder identifies when to be aggressive and when to negotiate firmly.
- Oshawa & Durham Specialist — Street-level advice on which Oshawa pockets deliver the best combination of price, schools, commute, and long-term resale potential.
- First-Time Buyer Focus — Dedicated guidance for navigating the mortgage stress test, First Home Savings Account (FHSA), land-transfer tax rebates, and builder incentives.
- Transparent Seller Strategy — Sets realistic list prices anchored in recent February 2026 sales, helping sellers avoid the prolonged DOM that comes with overpricing in a balanced market.
- Rate Volatility Readiness — Connects clients with mortgage professionals tracking Iran–Israel–US conflict impacts on Ontario rates, stress-testing budgets for multiple scenarios.
Harvinder Gill
About Harvinder Gill – Trusted Real Estate Agent in Markham & Durham RegionI’m Harvinder Gill, a professional Real Estate Agent with Royal Canadian Realty, Brokerage, based in Markham ....
Latest Blog Posts
OSHAWA & DURHAM REGION REAL ESTATE · September 17, 2026Fed Raises Rates... Will the Bank of Canada Follow? What It Could Mean for Home Buyers, Sellers and InvestorsSame market. Smarter
NEWMARKET, ONTARIO · Investor & Renovator ListingInvestor & Renovator Special in Newmarket: Great Potential in a Prime LocationRenovate. Reimagine. Add Value. A spacious detached
OSHAWA FIRST-TIME BUYER GUIDE · Week of September 14, 20267 Things Oshawa First-Time Home Buyers Are Asking This WeekReal buyer stories, honest rate advice, a free checklist and a process
Toronto Real Estate Board (TRREB); All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested
